Posts

Showing posts with the label Economy

Mapping the Global Population: How Many Live on How Much, and Where

Related to my previous post , Pew Research recently published findings on how richer the world is getting -- and from this marco perspective, it's a lot of good news. Overall, the world is getting richer, and more people are being pulled out of poverty. The greatest shift is of course, coming from China, where there is a rapidly growing middle class -- but the promise of a global middle class is still a dream. The rich world remains the same -- North America, Western Europe and Australia. More, here: Mapping the Global Population: How Many Live on How Much, and Where | Pew Research Center There's lots of data and graphs to explore. Enjoy.

The future job market looks bleak, even as unemployment drops

The race to the bottom continues. The OECD Employment Outlook 2015 is bad news cloaked in good news. Yes, unemployment is dropping across the world, but those returning to work are coming back part-time and/or for less money. Read more: http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/jobs-outlook-improving-slowly-but-millions-risk-being-trapped-at-bottom-of-economic-ladder.htm

In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All

Image
The latest OECD report on inequality paints a disturbing picture. The world is getting more unequal. The richest 10% of the OECD population now earns 9.6 times more than the poorest 10%. In 2012, the poorest 40% owned 3% of the household wealth in the OECD countries -- while the top 10% controlled over half; with the top 1% owning 18%. Increasingly, the culprit is low paying, non-standard work (temporary and contract). Between 1995 and 2013, 50% of new jobs created fell into this category -- and the disproportionately are youth and females. No surprise there. The OECD warns that the long term economic and social cohesion impacts will be significant if governments don't take steps to address the gap. Businesses also need to step up, as there is a direct impact to their viability. In Canada, income inequality has not increased during the economic downturn -- with Canada trending with the OECD average. But, the gap in pay between full-time workers and non-standard work...

DHL's Global Connectedness Index 2014

Image
DHL last week released the third edition of its Global Connectedness Index -- and despite the global economic malaise, things are looking good for the globalization of trade. DHL's analysis looks at the cross-border movement of goods, capital, information and people, using data that encompasses 99% of the world's GDP, covering 95% of its population -- and the findings are not surprising. The world’s economic center of gravity shifts eastward; emerging economies see bigger connectedness gains than advanced economies Flows of trade, capital, information and people stretched out over more distant geographies, documenting a decline in regionalization Europe remains most globally connected region; Netherlands again ranks No. 1

Forget the emerging economies

They may still be "emerging economies" in some books, but that term is so yesterday. If you think the economies of the BRICs were something -- you haven't seen the half of it yet. The rest of the world is coming, and it's not a bad thing. The captains of the first world economies will need a hard reset in their thinking, as colonial thinking will no longer get them anywhere. in reference to: "The United Nations World Investment Report calculates that there are now around 21,500 multinationals based in the emerging world. The best of these, such as India’s Bharat Forge in forging, China’s BYD in batteries and Brazil’s Embraer in jet aircraft, are as good as anybody in the world. The number of companies from Brazil, India, China or Russia on the Financial Times 500 list more than quadrupled in 2006-08, from 15 to 62." - A special report on innovation in emerging markets: The world turned upside down | The Economist ( view on Google Sidewiki )

Recession on water

Image
For a view of what the recession looks like, the Daily Mail takes a look at shipping coming from Asia. Specifically, off the coast of Malaysia, where about 500 ships are moored, with nowhere to go, and apparently, with no cargo. It's all doom and gloom in the shipping industry apparently, with Maersk reporting it's first half-year loss in its 105-year-history, last year, and expectations that it will remain over capacity for the next couple of years. I've updated the article's satellite photo of Singapore's harbour, The latest China PMI shows December to be up from November, to 56.1 -- indicating that manufacturing is again taking off in China. Capacity isn't going towards the domestic consumer goods market however, as a lot of China's stimulus went to infrastructure spending. Will there be trickle down domestic consumer spending? Is some of that manufacturing capacity going to send goods to North America and Europe? Do we have any money to spend? Ret...

When those cotton balls get rotten

Image
Every single one of us has some cotton clothing in our closets. And every year we buy more, despite not needing more clothing. It's a fashion thing. We want the latest, so we splurge on new tees, shirts, skirts and the like. The world produces lots of the stuff, and the trade of raw cotton is estimated to be around $12B USD -- with the largest producers by far, China, India and the US. The cotton business is big business -- think of all of the cotton China & India consumes, to produce gawdy wear for the likes of you and I -- raw cotton may get imported directly into China & India, or woven into cloth somewhere else, before being shipped to the garment factories, where the poor toil for endless hours to produce a "Eco Friendly" tee. So how "eco friendly" is your tee? Probably not very. Cotton is one of the worst commodity crops traded internationally -- if not the worst. To begin with, the cotton fibre is mostly water -- and for the large cotton p...

Just a generation ago, women were largely confined to repetitive, menial jobs.

Image
Women already outnumber men in post-secondary education — and soon, they will do so in the workforce — US anyway, and by extension, probably in Canada as well, and a number of the other OECD countries. It is cause for celebration, since this revolution has come about within a very short period of time — and it has been done without too many bodies at the side of the road and has, for the most part been accepted by the other sex. Women's ascension have given our society much to brag about. Millions of women have been given more control over their own lives. And millions of brains have been put to more productive use. Societies that try to resist this trend — most notably the Arab countries, but also Japan and some southern European countries — will pay a heavy price in the form of wasted talent and frustrated citizens. While we brag, however, we shouldn't forget how much work still remains to be done. Women continue to be locked out at the top ranks of most organizations, a...

Looking for India and China to lead us to a better world in 2010

"In September 2008, the global financial crisis hit Asia like a tidal wave, flooding in from the U.S. and Europe. Within weeks, Asian GDP growth rates began to tumble: China’s annual growth rate dropped from 13 percent in 2007 to about 9 percent in 2008, India’s slipped from 9 percent to below 6 percent, and Singapore’s plunged from 8 percent to less than 4 percent. Underlying these stark statistics were significant declines in exports. In March 2008, China and India had boasted year-over-year export growth rates of more than 30 percent; nine months later, both were well into negative territory. Foreign direct investment in these countries, and in Korea, Japan, and the nations of Southeast Asia, fell significantly as well." in reference to: Capturing the Asian Opportunity ( view on Google Sidewiki )

Lynching the bankers

Image
Patrick Hosking, writing a business opinion piece in the Times , wonders out loud, when we'll be lynching bankers in the street. The public, not just in the UK, holds the few in the financial industry responsible for putting the world in the current financial crisis, where tens of thousands of jobs continue to be lost every month. Despite public opinion -- no, rage -- the financial industry continues to dispense huge year-end bonuses. Which other industry is currently doling out bonuses at that rate? The financial industry is fueled by greed, and it seems regardless of current economic conditions, the infusion of public cash is only serving to sate the hunger of the bastards at the top. Shouldn't the current environment call for some restraint?

World growth grinds to virtual halt

Image
The bad news continues. The IMF has revised down the world's growth rate [PDF] to the lowest level since the second world war. The world's economy is simply projected to come to a standstill in 2009. And since we live in a globalized world, where national economies can't affect sustained growth on their own, a coordinated effort is being called for. The advanced economies of the world won't be suffering alone in 2009. As noted in the whining recently at Davos, the developing economies will also be feeling pain. The rampant consumerism in the advanced economies is being brought to a full stop as wallets empty and credit cards are maxed out -- that in turn is leading to a dramatic cut in demand for cheap products from the developing economies -- who are also experiencing a slow down in consumer demand at home. In calling for concerted global effort to restore the financial sector to good health, the IMF is calling for "capital injections, and disposal of prob...

Greed is not good

Image
Roy C. Smith, a professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, and a former partner of Goldman Sachs, makes an argument for greed, in the Wall Street Journal . But I find the argument is bullshit. Greed is not good. Greed is what got the US, and the rest of the world, into the present economic predicament. Holding financial soothsayers in high regard to the detriment of the actual engines of the economy is drove the irrational exuberance to the point where it all came crashing down. The market thrives on locating new opportunities, providing innovation and a willingness to take risks. It is also, regrettably, subject to what the economist John Maynard Keynes called "animal spirits," the psychological factors that make markets irrational when going up or down. For example, America has enjoyed a bonus it didn't deserve in its free-wheeling participation in the housing market, before it became a bubble. Despite great efforts by regulators to...

Going green with the World Economic Forum at Davos

Obama has made the promises -- and now UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, is also calling on the world to use the current economic crisis as a platform to launch the economic recovery and build a green future. Ban in a speech at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, is asking for the world to invest up to US$515 billion in the next 20 years, in building out a clean energy infrastructure. "By tackling climate change head-on we can solve many of our current troubles, including the threat of global recession. We stand at a crossroads. It is important that we realize we have a choice. We can choose short-sighted unilateralism and business as usual. Or we can grasp global cooperation and partnership on a scale never before seen." For more, see Green Investing: Towards a Clean Energy Infrastructure -- a report by the Forum, highlighting the green energy business opportunities; the webcasts, podcasts and vodcasts from the 2009 meeting; and the YouTube channel .

The next Iceland

Image
Foreign Policy has a sobering list of the next Icelands -- the next countries it is predicting that will face "economic ruin and political meltdown." Canada is not on that list. Neither is the US. However, of the five, a surprise for me is Great Britain, as it is one of the first world countries, and the prediction that it may follow Iceland to total collapse is evidence of just bad the financial crisis is. The question in Britain is no longer when the economy will enter a recession, but when it will enter a depression, with many bracing for a slump that could rival the 1930s in severity. GDP fell 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, and the European Union estimates it will contract another 2.8 percent in 2009. Unemployment is projected to balloon to more than 8 percent by year's end, and an estimated 23 percent of adult Britons currently consider their debt level "unmanageable." The British downturn is especially severe because the U.K. is more depen...

We'll be OK

If there is ever a moment for Harper to shine, it's now. The nerd of Parliament Hill needs to save the Canadian economy -- at least that's what the people are saying . What people really mean is that they want the government to act like they're doing something. Consumer confidence is down. Pessimism is hard to combat with the constant bombardment of financial and economic bad news from the US. We need a little bit of optimism. We're in a recession, but our financial systems are not busting at the seams the way it is in the US. We were never as adventurous as the US. We're Canadians -- we're boring. We were prudent with our regulations, cautious with our investments and not harebrained. Have we lost jobs? Yup . Are we going to lose more? Probably. But it's not going to last. We will not dip as low as the US. We will not scrape bottom. We will recover faster than the US. And right now, we need the government to help us believe that this will ...

SUVs killing the malnourished

Image
Yes, your gas guzzling SUV is not only contributing to the destruction of the environment, it's also putting the world's poor and starving in more jeopardy. According to the Guardian, a secret World Bank report finds that the production of biofuels has contributed up to 75% to recent rise in food prices. The report, completed in April, was not released in order to not cause an embarrassment to George W. Bush, who's championing biofuels to reduce American dependence on foreign oil. Read more here .

19.20.21.

Image
19.20.21. -- 19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21st century , is a cool project, collecting data to gain a better understanding of how supercities are redefining the future -- culturally and economically (and if I may add, also environmentally). The 19 supercities chosen for this study may be surprising. Only two are in America, and in total, nine reside in the developed nations of the world. The others are in developing countries. The cities: Los Angeles, New York City, London, Berlin, France, Tokyo, Osaka-Kobe, Seoul-Incheon, Moscow, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Bueno Aires, Istanbul, Cairo, Tehran, Karachi, Beijing, Shenzhen, Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Singapore, Jakarta, and Lagos. The mission of 19.20.21. is a multi-year, multimedia initiative to collect, organize and better understand population's effect regarding urban and business planning and its impact on consumers around the world. This 5+ year initiative will deliver results via 5 chann...

An oil-addicted ex-superpower

Image
Michael T. Klare writes in Asia Times Online , of the demise of the US as the world's only remaining superpower, due to the ridiculously high price of oil. Klare paints a picture of America's economic and military might that is heavily dependent on cheap and abundant oil, and suggests that America's oil addiction is spelling its doom. It's an interesting read, but I don't buy it. What Klare fails to point out is that America's adventure in the Middle East has the stench of colonialism -- and rather than the demise of a superpower, it may actually spell the resurgence of the good ole days.

Dharavi: Asia's Largest Slum

Dharavi is reportedly one of the biggest slums in the world, with a population of more than 1 million people, spread over an area of 175 hectares. Unless you live in a slum, you probably can't fathom this level of congestion. Stuck in the middle of Mumbai, between the city's two main railway lines, Dharavi is rapidly evolving into a city within a city. It is a place where the unwanted of India's caste system are kings -- where an informal economy is humming away, creating products that make it all the way to the shelves of big boxes in North America and Europe. It's a testament to the human condition that such a place exists -- and despite the odds, such a place is working. Read more in: The Economist: A Flourishing Slum National Geographic: Dharavi: Mumbai's Shadow City BBC News: Life in a Slum Dharavi via Google Maps: View Larger Map

Can China Be Fixed?

Image
China is in a bit of a quandary. The country, opened to economic growth by Deng Xiaoping , remains closed otherwise, by the current Communist Party leadership. The result: unparalleled economic growth by any country in the history of the world, and tremendous challenges on the social, environmental and political fronts, that ironically, perhaps only a strong central -- and dare I say, one party -- government, may be capable of solving without risking the economic collapse of the country. Unfortunately, the government that can fix the problems, is also the cause of the problems. China's central government stresses economic growth above all else. To achieve these goals, local government officials dabble in industry, compromising the welfare of the state and its people. They invest heavily in local businesses -- sometimes tying business prosperity with personal fortunes of corrupt politicians. This has led to lax laws or simply laws that aren't enforced to protect China...