North Korea's Nuclear Test

It may have become an even more dangerous place today as the world reels from North Korea's claim that it has successfully detonated a nuclear device in an underground test. The world is taking North Korea's claim seriously, with the UN mulling options on the degree of economic sanctions to apply. Even so however, most nations are waiting for international confirmation that North Korea did go nuclear, and didn't just explode a very large conventional bomb. Russia has expressed no doubts.

A few things come to mind in reaction to this breaking news.

1. Does North Korea really have nukes? Chances are they don't, and what they really did was explode a conventional bomb. Regardless, the hawks in the western world will be pushing for a much tougher response from the UN. I doubt however, there will be a response like what we've seen in response to Iran's threat to continue their "peaceful" nuclear program. Why? Because most believe that Kim Jong Il is a fruitcake. The man is completely disconnected from reality -- and North Korea is not even close to going nuclear. (If I'm wrong, I'll be eating my words in a few days I suppose.) On the other hand, Iran represents a much more real threat. Iran is probably closer to joining the nuclear club, and unlike Kim Jong Il, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is more than just a fruitcake. Ahmadinejad is smart and a bit suicidal. Kim on the other hand is a survivor.
2. Why isn't the US threatening to bomb North Korea to kingdom come? Despite the fact that the US may be way overextended militarily, you would think the US would be threatening first strike against North Korea -- just as they have alluded for Iran. Publicly, the US purports to be play the role as the world's police. Bush even likens himself to leader of the free world. Yet the absence of a harsh threat from the US reveals its intentions in the Middle East theatre. North Korea isn't of interest -- even if they really do possess nuclear weapons capability. The US interest in the Middle East has far more to do with acting as the world's police and more to do with the interests of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush.
3. The US is also not being heavy handed with North Korea because of the Chinese. There is no country in the Middle East with the clout of the Chinese. While the Chinese doesn't have the military might of the US, the last thing the US wants right now is to start a cold war with China. China is too important to the world economically. So, despite the US need to act in the interests of Japan, I doubt much more than limited sanctions will be called for and enforced by the UN. The US meanwhile, will leverage the UN bureaucracy to ensure inaction is all that results, and will push China and Russia to bring little Kim in line -- maybe send him some more food shipments.

Updated: October 10, 2006

• North Korea: A Nuclear Threat from Newsweek magazine -- read the tale of a game of chicken with a madman.

Updated: October 12, 2006

• Condi Rice is a twit -- blaming Clinton administration for latest failures.
• Rolling Blunder -- How the Bush administration let North Korea get nukes.
• Bush rejects idea of talks with N. Korea