Planning for a Climate-Changed World
Most now admit that the global climate is changing on a massive scale, and its happening within our lifetime. Regardless of whether you accept the science that places the blame on human activity, or choose to believe that the change is being driven by other mechanisms, know that unprecedented change is happening. Science has had years of practice in building climate models that have been tested with data to verify their accuracy.
The problem with such models however is the scale: it’s global. Models haven’t been built that narrow predictions to regional or local scales, where governments can respond with strategic planning. We all undoubtably believe that drought, fierce storms, flooding, and other signs of the impending apocalypse will never be visited upon us. That only happens to others, especially if they’re poor, and live in third world countries. Right? With models scaled locally however, we would be able to forecast the chances of disasters knocking at our doors and would be in a better position to prepare for such occurrences.
Of course, as New Orleans taught us, knowing that a disaster would occur, and doing something with that knowledge, are entirely different prospects. Sometimes, history just needs to repeat itself a number of times in quick succession, before those of us with foresight are heeded.
Updated: May 15, 2007
Honed by a broad range of climate scientists, the model represents atmospheric and oceanic systems. Like other global models, it simulates interrelated processes: for example, the warming of Earth's surface by solar radiation; the absorption of heat by the oceans; the reflection of solar energy by land surfaces, ice sheets, and particulates in the atmosphere; and the effects of the accumulation of excess carbon dioxide and other atmospheric gases that trap heat.[Read more in MIT’s Technology Review]
The problem with such models however is the scale: it’s global. Models haven’t been built that narrow predictions to regional or local scales, where governments can respond with strategic planning. We all undoubtably believe that drought, fierce storms, flooding, and other signs of the impending apocalypse will never be visited upon us. That only happens to others, especially if they’re poor, and live in third world countries. Right? With models scaled locally however, we would be able to forecast the chances of disasters knocking at our doors and would be in a better position to prepare for such occurrences.
Of course, as New Orleans taught us, knowing that a disaster would occur, and doing something with that knowledge, are entirely different prospects. Sometimes, history just needs to repeat itself a number of times in quick succession, before those of us with foresight are heeded.
Updated: May 15, 2007
- Planning for a Climate-Changed World: Part 2 of the MIT Technology Review article.
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